Day-1 Breakout Entry Study — buy the open, or wait for the dip?

14-Oct-2026 · MV Electrosystems, Transformers & Rectifiers, SS Retail, Vedanta Power, IDBI Bank · evidence base: 79 bhavcopy sessions (25-Jun → 13-Oct-2026), 2,896 symbols, 878 breakout events

Verdict The study The five stocks Orders placed Method & limits

Answer: GTT BUY on a dip beats a market limit order at the open — by a wide and consistent margin.

Buying the next session's open after a +8% / 3×-volume day returned −1.29% over the next 5 sessions with a 38.3% win rate (n=738). Every dip-entry variant beat it, at both horizons, with and without a stop, and in every sub-bucket we sliced. The deeper the dip, the better the mean and the win rate — the trade-off is fill rate.

Buy the open

−1.29%

5d mean · 38% win

Dip −3% (day only)

−0.09%

40% fill

Dip −5% (day only)

+0.87%

20% fill · 47% win

GTT −5% (3 days)

+0.42%

37% fill · 43% win

What we did about it

We placed 5 dip-only GTT BUY orders on the 3 names that passed — never a marketable order at the open. Two of the five were rejected outright because the data does not exist to trade them.

Stock	Verdict	Why
TARIL	BUY dip	Real, already-reported Q2 earnings beat + a ₹7,237cr order book. Power/T&D = focus sector.
IDBI	BUY dip, small	Stake-sale event, but results land 17-Oct → binary. Dip-only, smallest size.
MVELECTRO	BUY dip, small	Best technical bucket (+16% extension), but loss-making and at an all-time high on a fund-flow headline.
SSRETAIL	SKIP	Only 15 sessions of history — no 20DMA, no ATR → cannot size or stop it. Also hit the +20% band and faded.
VPOWER	SKIP	Brand-new listing — zero history in the bhav cache and not on Yahoo. Unquantifiable.

Bottom line for the +10% weekly goal: chasing day-1 momentum breakouts at the open is a negative-expectancy habit — it is a consistent drain, not a source of the +2%/day we need. The edge in this event class lives only in the dip, only in moderate moves (8–12%), and only up to a +20% extension from the 20DMA.

Entry policy comparison — same 878 events, same exits

Buy the open−1.29%

GTT −2% (3d)−0.54%

Dip −2% (day)−0.70%

GTT −3% (3d)−0.14%

Dip −3% (day)−0.09%

GTT −5% (3d)+0.42%

Dip −5% (day)+0.87%

Mean forward return, hold 5 sessions, no stop. n=878 events.

Policy	n	fill %	mean %	median %	win %	worst %
open	738	84.1	−1.29	−2.46	38.3	−66.2
dip −2% (day)	467	53.2	−0.70	−1.65	39.8	−63.1
dip −3% (day)	353	40.2	−0.09	−1.21	42.5	−62.7
dip −5% (day)	174	19.8	+0.87	−1.06	46.6	−62.0
GTT −2% (3 sessions)	560	63.8	−0.54	−1.58	40.0	−63.1
GTT −3% (3 sessions)	485	55.2	−0.14	−1.23	42.1	−62.7
GTT −5% (3 sessions)	328	37.4	+0.42	−1.06	43.3	−62.0

Same picture at a 10-session hold (open −0.95% vs dip −5% +1.28%) and with a −5% stop (open −1.14% vs GTT −5% +0.31%). The ordering never changes.

Conditioning — where the dip edge actually lives

Slice	events	open mean %	dip −5% mean %	dip −5% win %	Read
Extension 10–20% vs 20DMA	353	−0.40	+2.06	54.0	Best bucket (n=63 filled)
Extension 20–40%	232	−1.54	+0.42	41.4	Thin edge
Extension 0–10%	240	−2.18	+1.38	48.3	Worst for chasing
Extension > +40%	30	−4.83	−6.62	20.0	Avoid entirely
Day-1 move 8–12%	515	−1.04	+3.40	54.4	The sweet spot
Day-1 move 12–20%	310	−1.93	−0.16	41.8	Weak
Day-1 move > 20%	53	−0.17	−8.05	37.5	n=8 filled — blow-off
Delivery ≥ 50%	71	−0.59	+1.60	58.3	n=12 filled — promising
Delivery < 30%	604	−1.33	+1.00	48.4	Most events live here

⚠️ Honest reading: the median is negative in every policy. The positive means come from a fat right tail (best +60–70%, worst −66%) — the same shape we found in rule 14. This is a lottery-ticket event class: it argues for small size and no hard profit target. Several buckets have n<20 filled trades → those are TEST-MORE, not proven.

What each stock actually did, and why

Stock	13-Oct	14-Oct	move	vol vs avg	ext vs 20DMA	ATR20	Catalyst
MVELECTRO	833.95	987.35	+18.4%	11×	+16.0%	7.0%	Kotak MF stake crosses 5% (institutional flow; no earnings)
TARIL	304.00	354.00	+16.4%	7.8×	+25.4%	4.4%	Q2FY27: rev +61% to ₹739cr, EBITDA 17.4% vs 12.8%, inflows +97%, book ₹7,237cr
SSRETAIL	691.95	796.65	+15.1%	9×	n/a	n/a	Q1 PAT +61% to ₹24cr, rev +58.6% to ₹789cr — but newly listed (15 sessions)
VPOWER	n/a	n/a	+12.1%	n/a	n/a	n/a	Vedanta demerger entity — brand-new listing, no data anywhere
IDBI	82.94	89.95	+8.4%	≈33×	+7.2%	3.1%	60.72% stake sale (Fairfax reported at ₹81/sh) + board meets 17-Oct for Q2

Notes that changed the decision

TARIL — the only name with a completed, verifiable earnings catalyst and a ₹7,237cr order book (0.68× market cap). Caveat: reported PAT included a ₹131.5cr exceptional gain, so the headline +135% flatters the core. Order inflows (+97%) are the cleaner signal. This is a genuine Power/T&D name — our #1 focus sector.
IDBI — the reported deal price (₹81) sits below spot, i.e. a real open-offer overhang, and Q2 results land 17-Oct. It faded ~4% off its high and volume was ~33× average → a lot of the move is already in the price. Small, dip-only.
MVELECTRO — best technical bucket, weakest fundamentals: the last reported quarter was a loss (−₹6.89cr), the stock is at an all-time high, ATR is 7% (the most volatile of the five), and the catalyst is a fund disclosure, not a business result. Smallest position of the three.
SSRETAIL — hit the +20% band intraday (high exactly ₹830 vs a ₹691.95 close) and faded to ₹796.65. A failed circuit plus only 15 sessions of history = no 20DMA and no ATR → we cannot size or stop it, so we do not trade it.
VPOWER — absent from the local bhav cache and 404 on Yahoo. Nothing here is measurable. Revisit once it has 20 sessions.

Dip-only GTT BUY orders — all verified ACTIVE

No marketable order was placed at the open for any name — that is the point of the study. Each rung is a resting BUY limit that only fills if the price comes to us.

Stock	Trigger	Limit	Qty	Åpprox value	GTT id	Status
TARIL −3%	343.35	344.75	11	₹3,777	340235029	active
TARIL −5%	336.30	337.65	8	₹2,690	340235037	active
IDBI −3%	87.25	87.60	45	₹3,926	340235043	active
IDBI −5%	85.45	85.80	35	₹2,991	340235047	active
MVELECTRO −5%	926.25	930.00	4	₹3,705	340235629	active

Sizing and cash. Total notional ≈₹17,089 against a live balance of ₹48,191 (available.cash ₹146,165 less utilised.debits ₹97,975 — cash, not the opening balance), leaving ≈₹31,102. This is deliberately small: the event class has a negative median, so sizing — not conviction — is the control.

Stops. On fill, each position is picked up by db/chanakya/guardian.py (hourly via cron_gainers.sh) which attaches the house trailing SELL GTT — a −6%-style floor scaled to ATR (2.0×ATR20 for swings, floor 6%). No hard profit target: winners run (rule 13).

Rules logged. Suggestions #31 TARIL and #32 IDBI are on the Ideas tab with entry/target/SL. The order of events if prices do not cooperate: GTTs simply expire un-triggered — there is no cost to waiting.

Method

Event (all known at the breakout close → no look-ahead): day move ≥ +8%, turnover ≥ ₹2.5cr, volume ≥ 3× its own 20-session average, price ≥ ₹20.
Entry policies: open = marketable limit at the next session's open; dip-x% = BUY limit at close×(1−x) valid the next session only; gtt-x% = the same limit resting up to 3 sessions. A gap through the limit fills at the open (better price), modelled as min(open, limit).
Exit: close of the H-th session after entry, or at entry×(1−SL) if the low breaches it (stop filled at the stop — conservative).
Data: the local bhavcopy cache only (79 sessions, 2,896 symbols, 25-Jun → 13-Oct-2026) → zero live requests, fully reproducible.
Harness: db/backtest_breakout_entry.py → reports/breakout-entry-backtest.json.

Honest limits of this study

One regime, ~3.5 months. A choppy/falling tape during Jun–Oct 2026. Momentum entries do better in strong uptrends — this window may understate the open-entry case.
Medians are negative everywhere. The positive means come from a fat right tail. That is a lottery-ticket profile: it justifies small size, not a big bet.
Several buckets are thin (delivery ≥50%: n=12 filled; move >20%: n=8). Those are TEST-MORE.
Fundamentals are invisible to this study. It ranks timing, not quality. That is exactly why TARIL — with real earnings and an order book — gets the largest allocation despite a mediocre technical bucket.
Yahoo-sourced live prices for the entry levels (Kite quote endpoints are not permitted on this account); the close may differ — levels re-checked at the close.

Verdict: ADOPT — dip-only GTT entries for breakout continuations. REJECT — buying the next open.

Adopted change to record: after a day-1 volume breakout, never enter at the next open; use a resting dip BUY (GTT or a re-armed DAY limit), favour 8–12% day-1 moves and 10–20% extensions, and skip anything >+40% above its 20DMA.

This report is generated by an AI assistant for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a buy/sell recommendation, or SEBI-registered research. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Trading carries significant risk of loss. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Data sourced from NSE, BSE, Moneycontrol, and other public sources. Verify all data independently.